Textile And Apparel Industry Weekly: Consumption Differentiation Is Obvious, Electricity Supplier Flow To Price Performance Products Tilt

Investment tips for this period:

Last week, the textile and garment sector was weaker than the market.

Last week, Shen Wan textile and apparel index fell 3.61%, weaker than the 1.67 index of Shen Wan A index.

Among them, the apparel home textile index fell 3.86%, 1.92 percentage points less than the Shen Wan A index, and the textile manufacturing index fell 3.23%, weaker than the 1.29 index of the Shen Wan A index.

Recent key data review: in April, the drop of social zero data was mainly affected by holidays, and it is expected to rebound in May.

1) according to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, in April 19, the total volume of retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.2% over the same period last year, and the total value of retail sales of consumer goods increased 8% over the 19 years and 1-4 months.

In April, China's total social security volume was 3 trillion and 100 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down by 1.5 percentage points.

The slowdown in the consumer goods market in April was mainly affected by the May 1 holiday movement.

It is estimated that if the holiday mobility factor is excluded, the growth rate in April will be basically the same as in March.

2) clothing retail sales fell slightly, and the retail sales of textile and clothing categories above the limit in April dropped by 1.1% over the same period last year.

3) online retail sales, the retail sales of physical goods in the month of 1-4 reached 2 trillion and 400 billion yuan, an increase of 22.2% over the previous year, a 1.2 percentage point increase over the first quarter, a 45.7% contribution to the growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 3.7 percentage points in total retail sales of social consumer goods, and a 18.6% share of total retail sales of social consumer goods.

Among them, online retail sales of physical commodities reached 616 billion 100 million yuan in April, an increase of 25.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 2.3 percentage points.

Recently, the key recommendation: the middle and high-end clothing has been warmer and warmer. By the end of 16, the sports sector continued to boom.

We have the following priorities: 1) high growth brands with strong growth certainty, high quality and subdivision track and long-term development potential.

It is the fastest growing quality product in the apparel industry. It has been upgrading in the same store for 18 years, expanding its channels, and making great efforts in its performance.

We believe that the company has a high quality track in the high-end casual wear field, and the company has strong barriers for many years.

2) women's clothing enterprises with good marginal quality and good quality.

Grace: the company is a high-end high-end women's fashion group. In the first quarter, the main brand retail end recovery, multi brand synergy.

The company has the stable and high profit level through the cycle, widens the price of products, promotes the cost performance, and releases the elasticity of consumption.

The leading edge of the electricity supplier sector has been continuously strengthened, and 19 years are expected to continue to grow.

Among them, Antarctic electricity supplier GMV is growing rapidly and its advantages are constantly strengthening.

The electricity supplier industry is facing a downward trend in consumption and a slowdown in online traffic growth.

The core competitiveness is strong, the ecological chain construction is perfect, and the positioning based on high cost performance is in line with the current development trend.

The company's balance sheet is further optimized. We are optimistic that the market share of the core category of the company will be further improved. In the 19 years, the emergence of new products is expected to further expand the company's operating boundaries, and enhance the quality improvement and quality control.

Foreign capital allocation is overweight, leading Baima valuation premium is expected to be further explored.

We believe that in the future, the steady growth of leading companies' market position and the premium of market share are expected to be further explored. Baima's leading market capitalization, good liquidity and high dividends are also expected to get a higher premium.

Recommend Hai Lan's home and Semir costumes.

Hai Lan's home has been changing since the second half of 2017, and emerging brands, overseas market expansion and many other strategies have come into being.

We believe that the company's next five years' continuous repurchase plan will highlight its leading role. The total dividend and repurchase amount will account for 69.4%-78.0% of net profit in the whole year.

The leading edge of Semir clothing in the field of children's clothing has been enhanced significantly. In 2018, the logic of market share increase was further verified.

Industry viewpoint and investment suggestion: in the one or two quarter, the trend of clothing consumption classification is obvious, the high-end consumption passes through the cycle, and the public consumption is expected to recover from the stabilization. At present, the valuation is low and the margin of safety is strong.

Recommendation: 1) high-end recovery: biphonin, guris, di Su fashion, baby friendly room, and Angel; 2) public white horse: Hai Lan home, Semir dress; 4) business growth: Antarctic electricity supplier.

Risk warning: consumption recovery is not as good as expected.