In The Second Half Of 2016, The Overall Trend Of Garment And Textile Industry Is Promising.

Combined with the expected performance of the whole year, it is recommended that we continue to hold a steady white horse value stock with steady growth performance, and we will get a steady absolute return throughout the year. The corresponding targets will be Semir costumes, song's (new recommendation after resumption), Hai Lan's home, and the high performance and clear cross-border cross-border electricity providers.

Under the background of supply measurement reform,

Leading enterprises will further benefit from the upgrading of industry concentration, and the US dollar index has continued to rise in recent years, and the reserve cotton reserves will not be as good as expected. Cotton prices will rise again, which is jointly affected by the above reasons. It is expected to strengthen the performance elasticity of the enterprises with large reserves of cheap cotton stores in the short term, corresponding to the Huafu color spinning, Bailong orient and Xinye textile.

The fundamentals of the industry are still hovering at the bottom. Cotton prices rebounded and the profitability of cotton enterprises with low price of cotton reserves is expected to improve in the context of RMB depreciation.

Demand is still lingering low, Q1 and May growth rate continued to decline in single digit, and retail terminal price pressure is bigger.

In June, the clothing sales volume of 50 major enterprises in the country increased by 4.8% over the same period last year, the highest monthly growth rate in the first half of the year. However, from the trend of base change, the monthly base between the 15 half of the year decreased month by month. Therefore, the trend of marginal improvement of retail data will not be excluded.

However, it is not yet possible to determine whether the actual demand recovery trend is established.

The demand side of textile manufacturing is devaluing well, but domestic and foreign consumption has not been significantly improved. However, at present, the price of national cotton has risen in stages under the condition that the national reserve cotton reserves are lower than expected. In this process, the profitability elasticity of enterprises with low price of cotton reserves will increase.

The consumption boom is still not high, and the quarterly performance is expected to be comparable to that of a quarterly report.

Due to the fact that the current consumption boom is not high and the weather is affected by 5 and June, it is expected that the performance of the newspaper is basically the same as that of a quarterly report.

With the cotton price rising, the cost of low price cotton appeared, and the RMB continued to depreciate.

Investment strategy: 1, brand industry: retail sales improved slightly in June.

We believe that the current single month growth rate recovery is still unable to determine whether the actual demand recovery trend of the terminal is established. However, from the base trend of change, the monthly base between the second half of the year will decrease month by month, so the retail data representation does not exclude or will show a marginal improvement trend.

At present, under the background of undervaluation of food, beverage, medicine and home appliances, the attention of the spinning and weaving board has been slightly improved. In the process of no allocation to low allocation, the white horse value shares with steady growth will continue to be held in the light of the performance of the China Daily and annual performance expectations, and stable absolute returns can be obtained throughout the year.

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(after the resumption of the new recommendation), Hai Lan's home, as well as the performance of the high growth of the clear cross border links (fixed approval approval process to accelerate).

(suspension).

But in the case of Zhou's market, taking into account the issue of the "new information management policy" on Friday, it will directly target the market allocation and high leverage. The short-term market will probably be affected. Therefore, in light of the fundamentals of the industry, it is suggested that we should take a cautious attitude towards the textile and garment sector in the short term, and do not recommend the allocation of catch UPS, especially the theme game varieties with no performance support.

2, textile manufacturing: under the background of the reform of supply measurement, the leading enterprises in textile manufacturing industry will further benefit from the upgrading of the industry concentration. The leading enterprises of cotton enterprises and printing and dyeing enterprises are benefiting from this, and the US dollar index has continued to rise in recent years, with the beginning of the end of May.

The quality is worrying and the reserves are not as good as expected. In the short run, the price is expected to rise.

Therefore, due to the common influence of the above reasons, it is expected that the performance elasticity of the enterprises with large storage capacity will be strengthened in the short term, corresponding to the Huafu color spinning, Bailong orient and Xinye textile.

But in the long run, cotton prices continue to rise, the basic support strength is not strong, the late trend depends on the policy of dumping and storage, and the big cycle of cotton enterprises has not yet arrived.