Second Half Of The Year Or Rebound In Foreign Trade

In response to a series of measures taken by the government to promote steady growth in foreign trade, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute, told reporters that China's exports to Europe and Japan will probably pick up in the second half of the year.

In terms of China's foreign trade, Mei Xin Yu is an optimist.

Shortly after the financial crisis in 2008, he publicly said he should not be overly pessimistic about the slide in exports.

Until February this year, he stressed that the foreign trade figures of January should not be superficial but positive.

Speaking of the foreign trade situation in the second half of this year, Mei Xinyu thinks that we should distinguish between different markets and observe separately.

The government should also take this into account when formulating policies.

"We see that exports to the US and ASEAN are growing in the first 4 months, declining in the EU and Japan, and declining in emerging markets outside ASEAN."

Mei Xin Yu said, "but I judge that the rest of the year will have a rebound in exports to Europe, because the economies of major European economies have recovered, and the EU's quantitative easing measures will have a positive effect on the European Economic Stabilization and recovery."

In his view, the economic recovery of the major European economies will sooner or later be reflected in the demand for manufactured goods in Asia, especially Chinese goods.

After all, the physical improvement of the European labour market is not too obvious, and the growth of demand will not be reflected in European manufacturing industry.

But demand recovery still takes some time.

In the Japanese part, Mei Xinyu analyzed that the decline in Japanese exports was caused by a chain reaction triggered by the tax reform carried out in Japan last year, but the effect will still be eliminated after some time.

In April 1, 2014, the Japanese government, after a lapse of 17 years, referred the consumption tax from 5% to 8%.

According to the report of Japan economic news website in May 8th this year, after the implementation of the consumption tax increase to 8%, the consumption psychology of Japanese tends to be frugal, and the total expenditure is decreasing.

Japan's economic news said the data released by the general Ministry of Japan showed that 2014 of Japan's

The average reached 24.3%, rising to the highest level in 21 years since 1993.

Because of the increase in consumption tax, the overall cost of Japanese households, coupled with the rise in food prices caused by the depreciation of the Japanese yen, has led to an increase in the Engel coefficient.

Mei Xin Yu told reporters that compared with Europe and the United States and the Japanese market, the most need to worry is that

Other emerging markets such as Latin America and Africa.

Because these markets are faced with structural crises.

"

On the whole, it is plunged into a prolonged crisis, and the demand for imported goods will drop.

Especially in Latin America and Africa.

These countries used to pfer payments through the export of primary products, so that large numbers of domestic population could get rid of poverty.

But the current bear market for primary products has brought financial crisis to these governments.

He explained, "in fact, since 2013, the poor population in Latin America has begun to pick up again.

This trend is likely to accelerate this year, which is a big blow to China's exports. "

In terms of the steady growth measures adopted by the government, Mei Xinyu believes that in addition to conventional measures, "one belt and one road" may be a breakthrough point.

"We can help stabilize our demand by helping to promote the macroeconomic growth of the countries along the belt."

He said.