The Trade Surplus Is Only Temporary.

In 2014, China's trade surplus reached 2 trillion and 350 billion yuan, an increase of 45.9% over the same period last year. Assuming that GDP will be flat this year, the trade surplus will account for 3.6% of GDP this year, which will be higher than the internationally recognized trade balance warning line (3%).

The trade surplus is rising. The main culprit is imports.

Statistics show that in 2014, China exported 14 trillion and 390 billion yuan, an increase of 4.9%, and imports of 12 trillion and 40 billion yuan, down 0.6%.

However, for the widening trade surplus, Zheng Yuesheng, director general of the General Administration of customs and director of the Comprehensive Statistics Division, said that the main reason was that the sharp decline in global commodity prices had lowered import value.

The decline in the price of commodities in the international market will reduce foreign exchange spending for China, and it should be said that it is also a good thing.

Statistics show that since last May, the decline in global commodity prices has lowered the growth rate of China's import value by 3.3 percentage points.

Assuming that commodity prices remained unchanged last year, the number of imported goods increased by 2.8%, according to the whole year.

The value of imports also increased by 2.8% to calculate the trade surplus of last year will be less than 2 trillion yuan.

The issue has always been the focus of high-level concern.

At the end of 2014, China's State Council also issued special opinions on strengthening imports, aiming at promoting the economy.

The basic balance between import and export and balance of payments.

"Despite the size of the data, China's trade surplus in 2014 has created a new high point, but the simple high margin is not the goal pursued by China's foreign trade."

Zheng Yuesheng stressed that China has been paying attention to the balanced, coordinated and sustainable development of foreign trade.

An official of the Ministry of Commerce has also told the media that the main reason for the growth of foreign trade is lower than expected. The Ministry of Commerce will continue to insist on promoting the expansion of imports and will also have new policies in 2015.

Sun Lijian also believes that the expansion of the trade surplus is mainly due to the decline in global commodity prices. As the price of oil and other commodities picks up, the trade surplus will naturally decrease. China is also a country with scarce resources. The demand for imports is still very strong in the future.

With the withdrawal of the US QE, although the RMB will continue to depreciate in 2015, the market surplus of exports is still not ideal under the circumstances of the poor economic environment in Europe and the United States, and the trade surplus will further shrink.