Guan Qingyou: Invest In Pigs That Want To Identify The Draught.
Guan Qingyou, executive director of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, said at the 2015 capital annual meeting this afternoon, "in the next three to five years, we are in a protracted war of economic restructuring. Don't listen to the big bull market. Don't listen to the rebound of growth rate. The performance of the capital market is not a bull or a bear, but a bull and bear coexist. I believe you have a deep understanding.
A lot of money earned in the bear market is basically lost in the bull market.
Guan Qingyou said, "no!"
Underestimation reform
The difficulties lie in the real estate allocation from the perspective of asset allocation; from the debt field, the funds are deleveraging; in the field of production capacity, they are in the trend of production capacity; from the external demand, they are in the stage of external demand, and the global economic rebalancing stage, and it is impossible to return to the yellow gold era before the financial crisis.
Guan Qing you
At the same time, under the current economic situation, the policy has little impact on the market, and the driving force of the market comes from the following aspects:
First, the people's Bank of China, under the downward pressure of the economy, monetary policy is impossible to tighten, but in what form to relax.
Two is financial institutions, banks in what way to lend funds to enterprises and institutions.
The three is asset redistribution, investment in real estate, probably now fifty houses first sold thirty sets.
Guan Qingyou said that before and after the financial crisis, investors are also very different in their investment methods. Before the financial crisis, they chose investments from top to bottom. At that time, macroeconomists were very popular. After the financial crisis, there was a cycle of capacity to go out. The investment style became a selection of stocks. After the eighteen big ones, the way of selecting stocks was also bad. We should invest in the industry theme.
In this case, investors should choose three kinds of pigs: first, the weight is light, the square aunt knows most about them, and the two is the fast running pig.
achievement
Definite, not storytelling can not be achieved. Three, long wings are really benefiting from the direction of pformation logic.
Guan Qingyou said that the future investment opportunities are not securities business insurance, we answer certainly, the securities companies in addition to the storage, can not do insurance, what can not do?
However, Guan Qing friends also reminded that now is a big opportunity, big risk, big fluctuation, so that I do not recommend ordinary investors to fight in this market, and suggest buying some funds, because the risk prevention ability of professional institutions is relatively strong.
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The global economy is sluggish. Apart from the United States, Germany and other countries are at a stage of downturn or recovery, Global trade barriers will not be eliminated, and will be a great test for China's exports.
At present, businessmen who are engaged in Sino Russian trade have got bogged down in the mire.
Because of the lack of recovery, the exchange rate dispute between countries is endless, which is a severe challenge for export manufacturing enterprises.
In January 15th, the Swiss central bank's willful intervention led to huge fluctuations.
In January 13th, the first two days before the Swiss central bank changed its face, foreign exchange futures investors bet on the increase of the Swiss Franc to the US dollar to 26 thousand and 444 shares, the Swiss Franc rose sharply, and a large number of hedge funds engaged in foreign exchange trading and even emerging market trading went bankrupt.
In addition to the real economic pformation and continuing downturn, the urgent problem is how to deal with the local government debt. Han Wei, vice president of China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co, said that according to the credit rating system, the scale of local financing platform debt in 2015 was about 1 trillion and 400 billion yuan. It is estimated that the scale of the issuance of local government bonds will be 700 billion yuan this year. After the provincial government has issued the local debt, there will be a game process between the local governments and the cities and counties under the jurisdiction, which may not be sent to the financing platform in time. This time gap will further cause the financing gap, so the gap of the local government financing platform may reach 1 trillion yuan this year.
This gap must be filled in time.
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