The New Bull Market Risk Will Be Greater Than 2007.

According to media reports, next week, the SFC will send inspection teams to check the two financial businesses of the securities companies, and change routine inspections to special inspections.

For the reason why the inspection will start, a securities regulatory bureau official told the media that it may be mainly derived from the current round of "mad cow" market. The two leveraged leverage boosted the market's sharp rise and fall, which has a relatively large risk for investors.

What is most puzzling about this round of China's A share mad cow market is that CPI and PPI have been innovating repeatedly. The whole society, especially the entity enterprises, is crying out that financing is hard to raise and expensive. It seems that social mobility is seriously lacking. Under such circumstances, the central bank has no choice but to cut money in the right direction.

After that, the stock market has created a continuous amount of money, not only creating a new record of historical trading volume in China's stock market, but also creating a human history record.

People can not help asking, regulatory departments have been judging the extreme lack of liquidity in the market, so as to reduce interest rates in a hurry to reduce the direction to deal with, then, Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities 13 trading days accumulated nearly 10 trillion yuan amount of money, where does the money come from?

The crazy stock market is attracting more off court funds.

The central bank has sent water to help the property market to invest in the stock market. The central bank has pumped funds into the stock market, and the funds of the bank's financial products have been pferred to the stock market. The central bank's interest rate cut has led to the rapid withdrawal of deposits from the banks to the stock market.

What should be more concerned is that the highly leveraged funds of margin trading have been unscrupulous in the stock market, and P2P's high leverage funds have also flowed into the stock market.

WIND statistics show that as of December 5th, the margin balance of the two cities was 888 billion 247 million yuan, approaching 900 billion mark, of which the balance of financing was 881 billion 103 million yuan, while in November 5th a month ago, the two figures were 722 billion 240 million yuan and 717 billion 275 million yuan respectively. At the beginning of this year, they were 346 billion 527 million yuan and 343 billion 470 million yuan respectively.

According to the securities and Futures Commission's data, from November 24th to December, the daily average financing purchase amount was 111 billion 200 million yuan, which was about 17% of the average daily stock turnover over the same period of 3.

Financing buying has become a major driving force for boosting the market.

At present, margin financing is mostly financing for margin trading, and the leverage ratio is mostly 1:2. The proportion of a few radical coupon chambers will increase to 1:3.

Leverage means that the collateral for margin trading can be increased by 2 to 3 times as much as the capital account funds and securities account securities assets.

Such a bad result is that the stock is mortgaged to obtain a higher than 3 times the value of the mortgage funds, and then enter the stock market.

After pushing up the stock market, the stock stock value grows, and the stock stock is added to the stock market to increase more capital to enter the market, which drives the stock market to continue to rise, and the stock stock value continues to increase, and continues to melt more capital.

Following the cycle, the highly leveraged margin trading has made the market a serious speculation and a huge bubble.

Few radical

Magnifying the ratio to 3 times can not completely blame the broker.

In February 20th this year, the SFC answered questions related to margin trading in official micro-blog, saying that the leverage ratio of margin trading is three times.

When margin margin ratio is 50%, and all collateral is cash,

The leverage ratio is three times the maximum.

The margin ratio of margin trading is less than three times when margin margin ratio is higher than 50%, or collateral includes margin securities.

In addition, another "

The same can not be ignored, that is, P2P stock allocation, the threshold of financing is as low as 2000 yuan, the annual interest rate is about 15% to 18%, and some platforms are exempt from management fees only with interest margin, and the proportion of allocation is mostly 3 to 5 times.

The P2P stock allocation leverage is entirely negotiated between the financiers and the platform.

This round of market is entirely the central bank drain market, is the broker through margin trading means unlimited amplification of leverage self guided market, is P2P stock high leverage capital allocation to help the market.

Compared with the Daniel market in 2007, the risk of high debt and high leverage in the bubble market is much greater than that in 2007.

Even the big bull market, Li Xiao Xiao, stressed that there was no leverage in Daniel market in 2007, but now the leverage has surpassed the average level in the global stock market. Retail investors should be cautious about using leverage. They must fear the market, make money harder, and invest in the stock market.