Foreign Exchange Market Readjustment Of Monetary Policy Expect Dollar Index To Rise Slightly

(P) the minutes of the March decision meeting released by the Federal Reserve earlier this week showed that central bank officials did not change their judgment on the prospects of monetary policy. Participants in the foreign exchange market continued to adjust their expectations of the future path of interest rates. The US dollar rose slightly on Friday against the euro and yen exchange rate, while the US dollar index rose 0.10% in all day trading, but it still had a drop of more than 1% in a week.

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< p > > as of New York's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign exchange market < /a > closing, the US dollar index of the Intercontinental Exchange which tracks six major currencies has increased by 0.14% at 79.49 points, tracking more currency types and adjusting the Wall Street journal a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" index at the same time according to the total volume of foreign exchange market, while the US dollar index has increased by 0.10% at the same time 72.69 points.

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< p > Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen mentioned a six month period in the press conference after the Federal Reserve announced the March decision statement, that is, after the full suspension of the quantitative easing project by the Federal Reserve, it will take about six months to raise the short-term interest rate for the first time.

This is interpreted by the market as the Fed will start raising interest rates earlier than expected, and higher interest rates usually support the US dollar exchange rate.

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< p > but the minutes of the meeting released on Wednesday showed that the members of the Fed did not mention such a period in the discussion at that time, which also led investors to gradually abandon such a judgement, and the US dollar also suffered a decline in a variety of major currencies.

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< p > > on Friday, a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > US dollar < /a > increased by 0.09% against Japanese yen, to 101.64 yen, but about 1.7% in a week; the euro fell 0.02% against the dollar Friday, at 1.3885 US dollars, a 1.4% rise in a week.

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The increase in the US dollar exchange rate on Friday is considered positive economic data: the Labor Department reported that the production price index in March has a growth of 0.5%, the largest monthly growth rate since June 2013, far better than the average expectation of 0.1% growth made by economists. The consumer confidence index jointly released by Thomson Reuters and University of Michigan shows that the value of April is the 82.6 highest point since July 2013, far better than the March final value of 80.

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Blaine Daingerfield, a foreign exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said that the Fed will focus on employment and inflation data to determine monetary policy. Janet Yellen also took the long-term low inflation level as a reason for maintaining a relaxed policy stance. "If there are signs that inflation is approaching the target at a faster pace, the market may begin to question the credibility of this statement," said Brian Daingerfield.

But he also stressed, "we are far from the inflation rate close to this point."

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In terms of other currencies, British government data showed that the construction industry output in February dropped by 2.8% compared with January, and the pound fell by 0.29% against the US dollar on Friday, at 1.6737 US dollars, while the Australian dollar fell 0.17% against the US dollar at the same time, at 0.9398 US dollars in the same period p.

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