The Real Effective Exchange Rate Is Still On The Rise.

In the first two months, the trade surplus declined sharply, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar continued to decline. Some observers believe that this is the result of the Chinese government's active regulation, because the depreciation of the renminbi is favorable to < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > foreign trade export < p >.

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< p > for this reason, Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, responded that the RMB depreciated against the US dollar in the first two months of this year, and that it should be put under the background of RMB exchange rate reform and should be treated in a more rational way. It should not be over interpreted. "P"

Some of the interpretations are obviously guesswork or excessive.

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< p > "in January 2014, the real effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 2.03%, which is continuing to appreciate rather than depreciate. The real effective exchange rate can more fully reflect the change of" a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > /a > in foreign trade enterprises.

Shen Danyang said.

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< p > real effective exchange rate is the effect of excluding inflation on the purchasing power of currencies and reflects the international competitiveness of domestic goods.

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Since P was reformed in 2005, the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate has been constantly improved, and the elasticity of exchange rate has increased significantly.

By the end of last year, the renminbi had appreciated by 35.75% against the US dollar, and the effective exchange rate has appreciated by 42.21%.

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< p > although expanding the floating rate of the exchange rate will increase the two-way fluctuation of the a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > RMB > /a > exchange rate, it does not represent the new direction of the exchange rate trend.

From the economic fundamentals, there is no underestimation of the RMB.

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China's current account surplus (P) decreased from 10% in 2007 to 2.1% in 2013. The proportion of China's current account surplus to GDP is even lower if adjusted for some of the capital inflows, which are hidden in trade activities.

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< p > "although RMB has been facing appreciation pressure in the past period, this is mainly caused by a significant spread between the offshore and offshore markets, attracting a large amount of foreign exchange arbitrage capital.

In view of the relatively weak export performance in the near future, we believe that the renminbi will not continue to appreciate this year. "

Wang Tao said.

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< p > even if the exchange rate fluctuates exceptions, the people's Bank of China will implement the necessary regulation and management to maintain the normal fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.

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< p > "the recent fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has more reflected the result of the market. Compared with the surrounding and some emerging market countries, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is still within the normal range. With the deepening of the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, the two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate will become the norm."

Shen Danyang said.

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< p > related links: < /p >

In March 20th, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to depreciate significantly, and the spot exchange rate fell more than 300 basis points to 6.2275 over the whole year, reaching a new low of over a year.

The cumulative depreciation of RMB in the year 2.87% will basically smooth the appreciation of last year.

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< p > comment: devaluation makes the competitiveness of enterprises with high export proportion in textile, toy, API, chemical and other industries increase business and bring in exchange earnings and reduce financial expenses.

Among them, the company with greater export and no hedging will be more obvious.

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The continued depreciation of RMB P has significantly increased the concern of export stocks. Jinhe bio has said that it is beneficial to the company to use the fixed exchange rate settlement with us customers.

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< p > A shares related companies: Edisi, Chenguang biology, Huafu color spinning, Zhongyuan internal distribution, Jinhe biology and so on.

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