Domestic Outdoor Development Prospects Are Bright And Growing.

< p > domestic outdoor development is bright, and is in the growth stage, the fastest growing fine industry.

At present, the domestic outdoor development is very basic. We judge that in the next 3-5 years, 2-3 times the space is clearer, from 14 billion 500 million to 300-400 billion, corresponding to the annual growth rate of 20-30%.

In the future, the big outdoor space including brand and service is bigger.

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Less than P, Pathfinder is a leading outdoor brand in China and is expected to continue to grow faster than the industry.

The market share increased to 14.9% in 12 years, and the rate of increase was increased compared with 0.37% in 11 years.

On the basis of a good brand, the company's channel development is also very strong. The middle position positioning also caters for the biggest outdoor demand in the future. It is also the most advantageous market in the company. It is estimated that the expansion of the two or three line channels will be the main driving force in the next 3-5 years. There are still 1000-1500 spaces in the more than 1400 cardinal numbers.

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< p > The Pathfinder company's career management team has attached enough importance to terminal retail. As a small brand, we think that the company has a more effective and effective way of managing every link with retail thinking, which is the core competence of the company in the long run.

The operation of the company has been reflected in 2012.

12 years of sales revenue growth of 46.7%, at the same time, effective control of inventory (increased discount stores, electricity providers increased by 171%, terminal refined management): inventory fell 8.05%.

In the context of last year's price cut of 20-25%, gross margins still rose by 3 points.

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The new long term planning of P Pathfinder is beyond our expectations for the original brand positioning of the company.

The company's medium-term target will quadruple its net profit target in the next five years (to 2017), and the corresponding revenue scale is expected to reach about 4 billion yuan.

The company's long-term strategy is the first to become "multi brand and outdoor sports service enterprises".

The implementation path of multi brand strategy will take VF group as the benchmark. On the basis of the three major brands, it will timely merge new brands and enter the market segments. Outdoor service enterprises should become the integrators of the online outdoor platform, make full use of the electricity supplier to expand the market, and include outdoor services and brand sales to the company.

We have confidence in the execution of the company. In the short term, though it is difficult to make substantial contribution, the long-term strategic pformation of the company is matched with the mature outdoor brand development path and the industry trend. It also reflects the company's scale demands, and the medium and long term growth space is expected to be opened.

At present, it is also moving steadily towards strategic goals, including the establishment of network technology companies and investment companies in May this March.

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< p > this year, the company's orders for the Pathfinder increased by 40%. By the end of April, the implementation rate of spring and summer orders was 75%, and the sales rate in spring and summer was about 14%, at a normal level.

Q1 revenue increased 36% and net profit 45% this year. Considering that 12 years Q2 is the lowest base point last year, we expect that the growth of medium-term performance this year is expected to continue or even exceed the level of Q1.

It is estimated that the annual revenue growth will be about 30-35%, and net profit will be around 35-40%.

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< p > The Pathfinder expects the company's EPS in 13-15 years to be 0.67, 0.91 and 1.17 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to 23X, 17X and 13X respectively.

We believe that the current valuation is overly pessimistic about the industry and the company's expectations, and the company's reasonable value is 18-20 yuan.

The upgrades are "buy".

Judging from our judgement, we expect that the annual net income and net profit of the company will be 31% and 33% more than the average annual compound growth rate respectively. Compared with its growth, the current valuation is still low. The two is the promotion of the valuation of the company: the breakthrough of the multi brand merger and acquisition and the promotion of the idea of the integration of the outdoor platform; the three is compared with the overseas mature outdoor brands, the current valuation of Columbia is about 18X, and the performance center of its 5% or so is far below the Pathfinder; four is that the valuation is a process of dynamic switching based on the expected performance for the more clear growth companies, and the current stock price corresponds to the 14-15 EPS of 17X and 13X respectively, and the company's valuation is expected to be closer to the reasonable valuation on the basis of the expected growth performance in the future. There are four main reasons: first, based on our bright future of the outdoor industry in the next 3-5 years and the advantage of our company in sharing market expansion.

Therefore, we believe that the company is brand a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > the industry can be configured both in the short term and in the medium and long term, and the stock price is elastic upward.

Risk warning: consumption recovery is still no improvement, and the marketability of products is lower than expected.

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