Xin Ding Sheng Futures: Cotton Fell Slightly More Than Simply Continue To Hold

First, the trend of internal and external market

Worries about supply tensions no longer affect the market, the US cotton Futures failed to remain on the 100 day moving average on Tuesday, and traders began selling. Finally, the New York commodity exchange (NYBOT) cotton futures contract fell 1.69 cents in December, closing at 70.92 cents a pound, or 2.33%.

Affected by the falling price of cotton futures in the overnight market, the domestic cotton main contract CF1305 opened slightly below 19350 yuan in early trading today. At the end of the opening price fell slightly, the lowest down to 19285 yuan. But then the shock rebounded, the highest rebound in the afternoon after opening to 19375 yuan. Cotton prices are relatively strong all day, basically running above the average price line. Cotton 1305 main contract finally closed at 19355 yuan, compared with the previous trading day settlement price fell 25 yuan, or 0.13%. Trading volume shrank from 9 thousand to 36 thousand hands compared with the previous trading day, and the position was slightly reduced from 300 to 147 thousand in the previous trading day.

Two, message plane

The government of India plans to buy Cotton in 2012/13. India state enterprise India Cotton Corp (CCI) has drawn up a preliminary road map, which is about to buy 9 million bales of cotton from farmers in accordance with the benchmark price set by the state.

In the international market, on the 30 day, the price of imported cotton increased steadily, of which cotton cotton, Central Asia cotton and India cotton rose significantly, and West African cotton remained stable. At present, the US hurricanes are widely concerned by the market. If the heavy rain falls on cotton producing areas, the quality of new cotton will drop. In addition, the progress of India's new cotton listing is obviously lagging behind, which has become the main reason for the exporters to raise their quotations. Overall, as a result of Spin The quota of the factory is insufficient, and the current cotton price level is not equal to the price of domestic Xinjiang cotton under the 40% full tariff import, and the large quantity of imported cotton yarn imported from the textile factory alleviates the pressure of raw materials shortage. Therefore, it is difficult for the cotton price to go up too much space.

Domestic market, 30, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly. Zheng cotton futures has been out of the weak market for the time being. However, textile enterprises are affected by factors such as insufficient demand, and price increases are lower than cotton. In addition, tight funds and difficulties in recruiting workers, most textile enterprises have small profits or even losses.

Spot quotation, October 30th, the US C/A cotton 88.85 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 15125 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Australia cotton 94.35, discount general trade port delivery price 16261 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 91.10, discount general trade port delivery price 15413 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14661 yuan / ton; India cotton 83.60, discount general trade port delivery price 14481 yuan / ton. The national cotton price A index is 19648 yuan / ton; the B index is 18793 yuan.

Three, operation suggestion

Technically, overnight NYBOT Cotton period price A sharp fall has brought out a middle line, and the trend is still weak. But after the US cotton continuous adjustment, technical indicators are seriously oversold, and there is a possibility of short-term technological rebound. Today, the 1305 cotton contract of Zhengshang has also fallen, but the drop is very small. But also received a small line with the shadow line, indicating that the decline in kinetic energy is obviously insufficient, there has been some signs of stabilization and stability, the possibility of a rebound in technology is relatively large. On the operation, it is suggested that more than 1305 cotton can still be held. In addition, attention to the US cotton 70 cents integer threshold support.