Cotton Purchase And Storage Prudent Policy, Good Play Still Takes Time.

Industrial inventories are lower than the same period, but enterprises replenishment It is difficult to pull cotton prices. The sales and cost transfer of the downstream textile industry is still the key point. Only after dredging the downstream, the high cost cotton price can be transferred and pulled up at the same time. industry chain Smooth. The operation suggestion is to see more and do less, keep the idea of empty space, and the interval is mainly between 19800-21000 yuan.

In November, Zheng cotton market was slightly weaker, with the main trading range between 20000 and 20500 yuan. The state's 19800 yuan purchase and storage price is undoubtedly the most important factor to support the market at this stage. Nevertheless, increased output and a macro pessimistic environment did not create uplink sustained kinetic energy for cotton (20420, -90.00, -0.44%), so cotton prices showed a sideways shock. Technical indicators show that although many are slightly dominant, they are also cautious, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. The United States cotton aspect, cotton price also enters the cold winter with the weather, even hibernate. Europe's debt crisis continues to spread and continues to dominate us stock and commodity movements, putting pressure on the market. In the early December, although the world's six largest central banks jointly saved the market, from the perspective of market performance, investors were more vigilant and cautious about the effect of the rescue measures. A flash in the pan 。

A more solid and lasting support for good will naturally be a few national reserve policies. But the short-term stimulus is easy to exert, but it is difficult to sustain. While long-term benefits can give market confidence more, it requires more patience and warm-up. Since the beginning of picking cotton in September, the picking of cotton seeds in main cotton producing areas in China has come to an end, and the purchase price has remained stable. The cotton farmers in the mainland saw the fall, and sales gradually increased. From the start up to date, the total daily storage capacity of enterprises is not as good as that of the national plan, but the national daily storage and storage plan and storage capacity are constantly expanding. At present, the national day announced plans to take up 100 thousand tons of output, with a daily turnover of 4-8 tons. plan store up The increase shows the determination of the country to stabilize the cotton market, which plays a significant role in stabilizing market expectations. Although up to December 1st, the total amount of storage and storage has exceeded 1 million tons, about 1/10 of the annual cotton consumption in China. But the daily storage and storage has not seen a clear volume, even if it fits the macro short-term advantages. Storage Enterprises are also treated calmly. {page_break}

This year, the traditional "golden nine silver ten" market in the gauze Market was completely aborted, and the stock pressure increased due to slow sales. Textile enterprises generally reduce production capacity, reduce sales, and coincided with the peak of new cotton listing. The national cotton market monitoring system in November, "China's cotton industry inventory report" showed that as of November 8th, the yarn production and sales rate of the enterprises surveyed was 100.1%, a decrease of 7.4 percentage points, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period last year, 1.8 percentage points higher than the average level in the past three years, and a 17.4 day sales volume of 0.8 days, an increase of 9.2 days from the same period last year, an increase of 3.4 days over the average level of nearly three years. The production and sale rate of cloth was 98.4%, and the ratio of the company decreased by 10.6 percentage points, down 2.6 percentage points compared with that of the previous year, which was 2.9 percentage points lower than the average level in the past three years, and the sales volume was 46.1 days, which was 1 days shorter than the average in the past 46.1 years, an increase of 21 days compared with the previous year, which was 10.2 days higher than the average level of nearly three years. Starting from April this year, a rare bright factor in the entire industry chain, the yarn production and sales rate, ended in November for the 6 consecutive months. The production and sale rate of cloth is similar to that of yarn, and the turning point has also declined.

According to the inventory level of the whole year, in early 2011, according to the national cotton market monitoring system survey data in January, the cotton industrial inventory was 1 million 116 thousand tons. Up to now, the industrial inventory has decreased by about 283 thousand and 300 tons compared with the beginning of the year. Compared with previous years, industrial stocks in November 2007 were 1 million 180 thousand tons, 985 thousand tons in 2008, 882 thousand tons in 2009, and 1 million 30 thousand tons in 2010. Relatively speaking, the difference between industrial inventories and year-end inventories is not large at the beginning of the normal year. But at the end of this year, inventories were at a relatively low historical level and decreased considerably compared with the beginning of the year. This reflects, to a certain extent, that the replenishment is not positive after the consumption of inventory this year, and the enterprises lack confidence in the downstream market and are reluctant to hoard stock. This also highlights the fact that textile sales are a relatively important factor restricting cotton prices. In the face of low inventory level, if the downstream is improving or the confidence of the enterprises in the market is growing, the demand for replenishment will stimulate the cotton price in the medium term trend, and it is also a noteworthy focus in 2011.