Home >

The Government "Market" &Nbsp, Cotton Prices Fell Slightly.

2011/11/28 13:19:00 12

At present, the government's intention to stabilize cotton prices is obvious. Cotton prices continue.

Fall

It may be small, but the market is oversupply to suppress cotton prices. This year's storage and purchase of cotton as the next year's initial inventory will also become a heavy burden for the coming year, and cotton price is not enough to reverse the weakness.

Since October, the spot price quotations on the domestic and downstream cotton industry chain have presented the following characteristics: the price of cotton lint backed by the purchase and storage price is slow and sluggish, and the quotation of other products has accelerated downward trend, and cotton yarn processing enterprises are close to the margins of profit, the same category.

commodity

The products with higher quality and more complicated performance are more resistant to decline, and the relationship between commodity price differentials and price parity has entered a reasonable interval of historical statistics.

In the imported cotton market, excepting high-grade cotton fell.

Range

Smaller than the general decline of more than 10%, as of November 25th, the United States EMOTM grade cotton, Uzbek M grade cotton, Brazil M grade cotton quotes are 109.86 cents / pound, 110.5 cents / pound, 103.71 cents / pound, and the port pick up price is 18285 yuan / ton, 18387 yuan / ton, 17309 yuan / ton, and the internal and external cotton price deficit is 1000 to 2000 yuan / ton, entering the normal price range of the general import year, and the demand for imported cotton is slightly better than that of domestic cotton.

According to statistics from the General Administration of customs, in 2011 October, 252 thousand and 300 tons of cotton imported from China increased by 156 thousand and 200 tons over the same period, an increase of 162.6%, and the potential supply in the future is still abundant.

Parallel with the quotations of cotton products, parallel demand is that the pessimistic forecasts of economic recession bring weaker and weaker spot demand, and the number of domestic and foreign textile products is weak, and the amount of cotton used is reduced: (1) statistics from the General Administration of Customs show that in 2011 and October, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 10.38% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 11.12 percentage points.

From the point of view of export orders, the turnover of the Canton Fair, which just ended in early November, increased by 8.3%, down 13.4 percentage points from 21.7% last year, and the actual turnover of European and American purchasers decreased by 19% and 24% respectively.

As a leading indicator of the Canton Fair data, it also indicates that the impact of the decline in orders will gradually appear in the next 3 to 6 months.

Second, consumption demand in the domestic market is not optimistic.

The national cotton market monitoring system forecast for production and storage in November showed that domestic cotton consumption in 2011/2012 was 9 million 471 thousand tons, down 174 thousand tons from last month.

Although it is the traditional peak season for consumption, the sales of cotton yarn, chemical fiber and other finished products are stagnant.

According to the textile association, more than 2000 small cotton spinning enterprises, which account for 20% of the national textile capacity and have a market volume of around 10000 spindles, are currently in a state of shutdown due to huge fluctuations in raw material prices and tight funds.

National cotton market monitoring system sampling survey estimates that the current national cotton industry inventory of about 832 thousand and 700 tons, a decrease of 3.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, an average inventory reduction of 8.7% over the past three years.

The rate of inventory decline is slower than that of stop production, which is enough to show that sales of finished products are weak.

Comprehensive domestic and foreign economy further cooling down momentum, does not rule out the whole industry will enter a more difficult period.

At this point, the decisive role of domestic cotton prices is nothing more than state purchasing and storage.

As of November 25th, cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 862030 tons this year, accounting for only 10% of the total annual output, and little impact on market supply and demand.

To this end, the 23 cotton store issued a notice on the need to protect the storage capacity, to ensure that the open storage and purchase notice, again stressed that the fixed price is not limited to the purchase and storage, but also pointed out that the planned volume of storage has reached 4 million 100 thousand tons, accounting for 55% of the estimated output of the year, which is the first time the central storage cotton disclosed that the storage capacity of the reserve is not limited.

The announcement will undoubtedly add confidence to the market once again. It will become the first choice for domestic cotton spot traders, while the spot market price will continue to fall and the space will be narrowed.

From the above point of view, the author believes that although the supply exceeds demand and the demand is expected to decline next year, the cotton price will be suppressed, but the cotton price will be stable for a long time.