Textile And Clothing: Upgrading Of Consumption To Enhance Bargaining Power In The Industry
Review of the first three quarters: the industry as a whole
Outperform
Clothing home textile sub industry
Accumulate steadily
。
In the first three quarters of 2011, the textile and garment sector fell by 13.09%, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen stock index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell by 17.30%, 19.05% and 19.07% respectively.
Half year results support the three quarter performance of apparel home textile industry is relatively strong, and won 5 and 3 percentage points, respectively.
Price trend: cotton prices are low and volatile, and clothing prices are rising rapidly.
We believe that the fourth quarter of domestic cotton prices around the 20000 narrow range of the possibility of a greater shock, and the fourth quarter of the cotton price is expected to hit the bottom of the possibility of recovery.
We expect that the overall consumer price growth rate of clothing is expected to remain high, while the price structure of some products that benefit from consumption upgrading is expected to accelerate.
Import and export: the upgrading of textile products and the market of clothing domestic demand are starting.
In the first 8 months of 2011, exports of textile manufacturing sub sectors showed "
Volume price rise
"Characteristics, product structure upgrading trend continues.
In the apparel home textile industry, the trend of pformation from export to domestic demand market is obvious.
Downstream retail market: price push
Retail sales
Steady and rapid growth.
In the 1-8 month of 2011, the total retail sales of textile and clothing above the quota increased by 24% year-on-year, basically unchanged from the same period last year.
Price increases are the main driving force for growth.
Upstream manufacturing: de stocking, production growth has slowed down significantly.
In the first half of 2011, the production and marketing rate of textile industry declined obviously.
Despite the slowdown in output growth, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the entire textile and garment industry remains high.
Valuation and investment strategy: pay attention to the improvement of bargaining power and the upward movement of valuation, and the industry "optimistic" rating.
We believe that the valuation differentiation of the two sub sectors reflects the expectation of the market for the growth of their fundamental performance.
Based on the strong bargaining power of the brand apparel industry and the rising value of the consumer goods industry, we believe that the valuation of the apparel home textile industry has the opportunity to move upward.
Textile manufacturing sub industry: pay attention to technology research and development and scale advantages to bring higher value-added products, recommend Lu Tai A (000726); apparel home textile sub industry: consumption upgrading trend is obvious, pay attention to channel expansion and raise the price ability, recommend wedding birds (002154), seven wolves (002029), Semir clothing (002563),
Kaiser shares
(002425), fuanna (002327) and Luo Lai home textile (002293).
Risk warning: the European debt crisis and the deterioration of the US economy exceed expectations; the domestic inflation situation exceeds expectations; the macroeconomic downturn hits consumer confidence; raw material prices fluctuate violently, and the monetary policy environment deteriorates.
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