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The Basic Balance Of Supply And Demand Of Cotton In The World Is &Nbsp;

2010/10/21 13:44:00 68

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The new high, however, suffered a fall. Last Friday, the international cotton futures price staged a high diving performance.

On Friday, the US NYBOT cotton futures hit a 119.8 cent / pound level shortly after the opening of the December contract. This is the record high in cotton prices in the US.

Dramatically, because of the subsequent profit taking of the investors, the cotton prices retreated rapidly in the evening and ended at a price limit.

At the close, NYBOT cotton fell 4.4% to 109.87 cents / pound in December.

From July to this year, the United States

Cotton futures

Prices have climbed nearly 65%.

Cotton prices climbed slightly in China, but cotton prices in the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange rose more than 40% since the end of 8 this year and last Friday.

In October, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) reported in the October supply and demand report, which suggested that the Chinese factor promoted cotton prices. The report revised the cotton import forecast in China to 13 million bales (one pack of 170 kg) in September and 12 million 750 thousand packages in September.

China Customs Statistics also showed that in September this year, China imported 201 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 96.6% over the same period last year, and the average import price continued to rise, reaching 2062 US dollars / ton, up 1.9% compared with August.

In 2010 1~9, China imported 2 million 155 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 99.7% over the same period last year.

Demand is increasing.

yield

But it is decreasing.

The cotton association of China has monitored that as of the end of September, the total output of cotton is estimated to be 6 million 640 thousand tons, and the same caliber will be reduced by 2.3%.

According to survey data from the Ministry of agriculture and Statistics Bureau, the cotton production is reduced by about 4% compared with the caliber.

In the context of imbalance between supply and demand, China's cotton mills may take last Friday's US market decline as an opportunity to buy new orders.

But there are domestic agencies remind that continue to do more cotton at the price level is obviously "not reliable".

In the 2010 cotton year, domestic cotton prices also rose sharply, and seed cotton purchase price, throwing and selling price, spot price and cotton yarn price rose to 20%~40% in a short span of one and a half months.

China Cotton Association said that although this wave of ups and down factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, but not enough to support cotton prices so skyrocketing, speculative speculation also accounted for a large proportion.

The agency expects that China's cotton production will be reduced this year, but the world's cotton harvest will be good. The world's cotton supply and demand is basically balanced. Cotton companies should strengthen self-discipline and never engage in malicious speculation or bid up prices.

The position data of US cotton futures do not seem to support rashly cotton production.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said in a week report that the net holding position of the fund held a slight decrease in the number of net long positions, and that the number of non commercial positions in the long positions decreased from 35875 to 35020 in the previous week. The net fund of the management fund was also reduced to 44026 from the 47120 hand of the last report.

According to insiders, the cotton market in China and the United States is overbought and may be revised downwards in the near future.